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New Decade’s Resolutions: Investing

Maybe the flaw in resolutions is the one year time frame. What about new decade resolutions? (Put aside disputations on “the decade” should begin in 2020 or 2021. A new decade begins whenever one wants it to.)

Decades are, or should be, more naturally used in investing contexts. What a decade the 2010s were. From the Twitterverse, Charlie Biello had a series of interesting stats. The most compelling graph of which was of the 3x leveraged Nasdaq 100. This was the decade not just of tech, but big tech.

Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking a decade, this is a trend I could see, and looked for other ways to leverage most of which failed. This might be a compelling play for the next ten years as well, but not learning the lesson of market timing, I am going to wait for a better entry point.

What would disrupt this order? The commonplace answer is crypto which after a phenomenal run of it’s own hit a nadir in 2019. But what a nadir. Bitcoin remains over $7,000.

The top 17, available on Coinbase December 31, 2019 (not included in this screen grab, Orchid, at $0.34

I am not up to speed on the merits of these and other (ever-proliferating) coins but they won’t need leverage if this thesis is accurate to obtain 50x returns. Indeed I’d hazard most of these will be worthless by 2030. There are few (any?) easy to use Cryptocurrencies. Perhaps the analog moment is big tech in the 1970s (Bitcoin is IBM?) However, an index of them, weighted at least partially by market capitalization as the QQQ is, is an intriguing affair. Coinbase makes that easy to do. Though some important coins – Monero most notably- are not here. Still, why not set and forget?

The forgetting has always been the hard part for me. Especially with the ever-intoxicating crypto.

I suspect public market returns may be very poor in the first half of the decade. It has been a heck of a run, with a potentially very different regulatory environment. Finding behaviors for investing that work over time with minimal taxation of attention for the next ten years is this first new decade resolution.

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