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The Four Trillion-Dollar Horsemen

Two reports on US Tech companies reaching $1 trillion in market capitalization. The Wall Street Journal noted it is four companies now after Google I mean Alphabet hit the number. Facebook, Apple and Microsoft are the others. Marketwatch reported it as three..forgetting Microsoft. Amazon will be there soon. The small difference in reporting shows both how useless a particular number is, and how fascinating.

Will there be 40 Trillion-dollar cap companies? 400 one day? Certainly.

I remember at the mid-2003 or so nadir some idle speculation about whether some company would hit a trillion and when. This conversation picked up as Apple surged later in the decade.

There was less talk of trillions when there were the four horsemen of the late nineties: Dell, Oracle, Cisco…and Microsoft. (Some accounts would swap in Intel as one of those names.) Instinctively an acknowledgement that there was some inflation in their prices? It’s hard to say the mighty have fallen. Dell is still a force, though faced tough times and went private. Oracle is now roughly 20% over it’s late 90s peaks. Cisco is not, but it’s tough to say the mighty have fallen. It pays a per share dividend now higher than the price (split-adjusted) in mid-1995.

Who will be the Four (or Five or Forty) horsemen of 2030? If any of the above names is a candidate for that they’re probably still a good investment today.

Published inInvesting

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