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Richard Kain's Writings Posts

August 10 Trading: Trading ZW, ZC on my First Crop Report; & ZN at end of day

I had a remarkable run last summer in the futures markets, mostly from shorting the metals save for gold last August.  The trading has been infrequent since then save for spates of shorting the 10 Year Treasury which on balance has been a disaster.

Last week I shorted both Corn and Wheat, even holding them short over the weekend.  Frankly was planning to reduce the position but forgot the ag futures markets close at noon pacific and was left holding my breath a bit for the weekend.  The basis of this trade effectively was a belief in mean reversion and the Corn trade worked out well with mild rains over Iowa leading to a drop Monday morning.   I did not however want to be short going into the crop report, and even went long, but intending to get short again in all but the most dire reports should the price action after the crop report appear safe to do so.